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What’s New?
June 12, 2009: Updated version of “Bootstrap Tests of Stationarity”
June 4, 2009: Updated version of “Unplanned Inventories and the Decline in GDP Volatility”
May 15, 2009: Completed version of “Time Variation of CAPM Betas across Market Volatility Regimes for Book-to-Market and Momentum Portfolios”
May 12, 2009: Completed version of “Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?”
April 27, 2009: Macro Focus for Macroeconomic Advisors on “The Shape of Things to Come”
April 6, 2009: GAUSS code and data files (1,2) for calculating model-free measure of the business cycle
March 26, 2009: Major revision of “Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence” (accepted on April 15, 2009 for publication in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics)
February 24, 2009: Completed version of “The Asymmetric Business Cycle”, data for business cycle measure (updated on April 29, 2009), and note of practical computation of business cycle measure
February 7, 2009: Television debut on the Jaco Report (local St. Louis current affairs program) to discuss stimulus package (watch)
December 22, 2008: Policy proposal of “A New Fed-Treasury Accord” (linked to on Econbrowser on December 24, 2008 and more or less in agreement with subsequent March 18, 2009 FOMC policy statement and NY Fed policy statement and March 23, 2009 joint Fed-Treasury statement)

About Me
I am an associate professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis. I teach macroeconomics, finance, and econometrics to undergraduate and graduate students. My research involves using statistical analysis to gain insights into a number of empirical issues in economics, including the following:
Are business cycle fluctuations symmetric? What are their sources and economic implications?
What is the nature of structural change in macroeconomic relationships? Is it gradual or abrupt?
Why has aggregate production become less volatile in recent years?
Why are aggregate household expenditures much less volatile than overall aggregate production?
What are the sources of persistent changes in the unemployment rate?
How does stock market volatility affect expected returns in the stock market?
Why are deviations from “the law of one price” so volatile and persistent across countries?